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U.S. Dollar Looking Toppy

by Archer Financial Services | Jun 29, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Global equity markets firmed on news that China eased some foreign investment restrictions and the People's Bank of China promised further liquidity support.

U.S. stock index futures advanced on news that U.S. banks cleared the second part of the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests.

Personal income increased .4% in May, as expected, and personal consumption expenditures advanced .2%, when a .4% gain was anticipated.

The 8:45 June Chicago PMI is expected to be 60.1 and the 9:00 June consumer sentiment index is anticipated to be 99.

Overall, U.S. stock index futures are holding up relatively well in spite of the ongoing global trade uncertainties.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro currency is sharply higher and the U.S. dollar is lower on news that the euro zone's annual rate of inflation advanced in June to above the European Central Bank's target for the first time since early 2017.

The European Union's statistics agency said consumer prices in the euro zone were 2% higher than in June 2017, which is an increase from the 1.9% annual rate of inflation that was reported in May.

The British pound is substantially higher on news that the U.K. economy expanded in the first quarter at a faster rate than initially reported, according to a revised estimate released today.

The U.K. Office for National Statistics said the economy expanded .2% in the first quarter, which compares with a preliminary estimate of a .1% gain.

This report increased speculation that the Bank of England could hike its key lending rate at its August 2nd policy meeting.

The Canadian dollar is higher on news that Canada's gross domestic product increased .1% in April from the previous month. Market expectations were for GDP in April to remain unchanged from the previous month.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are mixed to higher.

There are no Federal Reserve speakers today.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee’s September 26 meeting is 75%, which compares to 70% yesterday.

The longer term trend for futures is lower.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

September 18   S&P 500

Support    2713.00       Resistance    2741.00

 

September 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    94.310         Resistance    95.110

 

September 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.16210       Resistance    1.17450

 

September 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .90640         Resistance    .91190

 

September 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .75410         Resistance    .75980

 

September 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7331           Resistance    .7418

 

September 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    144^20        Resistance    145^12

 

August 18   Gold

Support    1246.0         Resistance    1258.0

 

September 18   Copper

Support    2.9550         Resistance    3.0000

 

August 18   Crude Oil

Support    72.88           Resistance    74.07


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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