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FOMC Statement Today

by Archer Financial Services | Jun 13, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are higher due to speculation of possible increased merger and acquisition activity.  

The producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted .5% in May from a month earlier, which compares to expectations of a .3% increase in overall prices.

The producer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy sectors, was up .3% in May from the prior month, which compares to the estimate of a .2% increase. 

The June Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations report will be released at 9:00. Last month’s report came in at 2%.  

Traders appear to be gradually shifting their focus of attention more toward the still bullish overall accommodative global interest rate policies and away from the geopolitical worries.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro currency continues to be supported by the belief that the European Central Bank at its policy meeting on Thursday will debate the end of its quantitative easing program.

The euro is higher even though industrial production in the euro zone fell more sharply than expected in April.  The European Union's statistics agency said output of factories, mines and utilities was .9% lower in April than in March. Economists estimated that output would fall .7%.

The U.K. May consumer price index increased .4%, as anticipated. 

The Bank of Japan will hold its regularly scheduled policy meeting on Friday.

   

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two day policy meeting today and is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year.

The FOMC will release a statement at 1:00 central time followed by a press conference at 1:30.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike from the Fed today is 96%, which compares to 95% yesterday.

Although geopolitical events will inevitably develop from time to time, which will likely produce short periods of flight to quality buying, the main trend for futures is lower.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

June 18   S&P 500

Support    2778.00       Resistance    2797.00

 

June 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    93.510         Resistance    94.070

 

June 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.17210       Resistance    1.18050

 

June 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .90200         Resistance    .90780

 

June 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .76550         Resistance    .77170

 

June 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7542           Resistance    .7617

 

September 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    142^4          Resistance    143^12

 

August 18   Gold

Support    1291.0         Resistance    1308.0

 

July 18   Copper

Support    3.2100         Resistance    3.2750

 

July 18   Crude Oil

Support    65.23           Resistance    66.77


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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