U.S. Employment Numbers Strong

by Archer Financial Services | Jun 01, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   


Stock index futures firmed in the overnight trade as Italy’s political crisis subsided.

Stock index futures advanced to new highs for the day following a strong monthly jobs report in the U.S.    

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 223,000 in May, which compares to expectations of a gain of 189,000. The data was above the 178,000 positions that the Automatic Data Processing report indicated on Wednesday.

The jobless rate fell from 3.9% to 3.8%, an 18 year low, which compares to the consensus forecast for it to remain unchanged.

The 8:45 central time May PMI manufacturing index is expected to be 56.6.

There are two 9:00 reports. The May Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 58.5 and the April construction spending report is estimated to show a .8% increase.

In spite of a variety of geopolitical risks, traders appear to be gradually shift their focus of attention more toward the still bullish overall accommodative global interest rate policies and away from the geopolitical worries.



The U.S. dollar is lower and the euro currency is higher as the political tensions in Italy eased. The greenback remained firm after the U.S. employment report was released. 

The euro currency is lower even though investor worries about euro zone stability appeared to ease after two large anti-establishment parties in Italy, the Five Star party and the League struck a deal on a coalition government, which decreased chances of new elections in Italy.

Lower crude oil prices and strong U.S. economic data pressured the “commodity currencies,” the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar.



Flight to quality longs were liquidated in light of a better tone to the political situation in Italy.

There was addition pressure on futures when the stronger than expected employment numbers were reported.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee at the June 13 meeting is 94%, which compares to 91% yesterday.

Although geopolitical events will inevitably come up from time to time, which will produce short periods of flight to quality buying, the main trend for futures is lower.



June 18   S&P 500

Support    2704.00       Resistance    2730.00


June 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    93.770         Resistance    94.400


June 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.16530       Resistance    1.17370


June 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .91140         Resistance    .92130


June 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .76810         Resistance    .77450


June 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7504           Resistance    .7583


September 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    143^6          Resistance    144^20


August 18   Gold

Support    1291.0         Resistance    1308.0


July 18   Copper

Support    3.0500         Resistance    3.0950


July 18   Crude Oil

Support    66.03           Resistance    67.55

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.