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Stock Index Futures Up for Eight Day

by Archer Financial Services | May 14, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures are higher for an eight consecutive day.

Some of the strength is due to a report that China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said China is willing to work with the U.S. for a positive outcome in trade negotiations in talks in Washington from May 15 to 19.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for today.

In the longer term, traders will probably gradually shift their focus of attention more toward corporate earnings and the still overall accommodative global interest rate policies and away from a variety of geopolitical worries, including global trade tensions and now the situation between the U.S. and Iran.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower and the euro currency is higher for a fourth day after a ECB policy maker said the first interest rate increase in the euro area could come “some quarters, but not years” after the bond buying program concludes.

Higher prices for the euro currency tended to pull up the value of the British pound.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to the increase in crude oil prices.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are mixed to lower after Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said the Federal Reserve should continue its gradual approach to increasing interest rates given that inflation has not reached the U.S. central bank's 2% goal in a sustained way.

The Federal Reserve is forecasting another two rate hikes this year, although an increasing number of policymakers see three more as a possibility.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard will speak at 8:40 A.M.

The Federal Open Market Committee remains on track to deliver its second rate hike of the year when it meets next month.

The probability of a fed funds rate increase from the FOMC at the June 13 meeting is almost 100%, which is unchanged from Friday.  

While a June interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve appears to be almost fully priced in, the probability of another rate hike in December stands at 91%.

Although some analysts are predicting three more interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, I am still anticipating only two more rate increases this year from the Federal Reserve; one in June and another in December.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

June 18   S&P 500

Support    2725.00       Resistance    2743.00

 

June 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    92.020         Resistance    92.430

 

June 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.19660       Resistance    1.20310

 

June 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .91410         Resistance    .91830

 

June 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .78210         Resistance    .78530

 

June 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7535           Resistance    .7573

 

June 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    142^12        Resistance    143^16

 

June 18   Gold

Support    1316.0         Resistance    1326.0

 

July 18   Copper

Support    3.0750         Resistance    3.1350

 

June 18   Crude Oil

Support    70.18           Resistance    71.31


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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