On Thursday May 10th the United States Department of Agriculture will release its new crop season projections at 11:00 a.m. central time. Let’s take a look at some corn fundamentals.
ASSUMING, a trend line yield of 174 bushels per acre with a 1% increase in demand, ending stocks for 2018/2019 could come in around 1.35 billion bushels. This would be down from 2.182 billion bushels in 2017/2018. Furthermore, IF yields decline to 168 bushels per acre, this would put ending corn stocks at 899 million bushels and result in the second tightest stocks/usage ratio on record. Demand is making new highs, while South America and Chinese production is down year over year. Therefore, yield per acre will be critical this growing season, so traders definitely need to pay close attention to weekly crop progress reports! Let’s go to the charts for a technical checkup:
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