By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
The National Federation of Independent Business said its small business confidence index edged up .1 percentage points to 104.8 in April to near record highs.
The Labor Department's 9:00 central time March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, which tracks the monthly change in job openings and offers rates on hiring and quits is expected to be 6.1 million.
President Donald Trump said he will discuss trade issues with Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning.
Also next week, China’s top economic official, Vice Premier Liu He, is scheduled to visit Washington to resume negotiations.
Last week, the seven member U.S. delegation returned to Washington and briefed President Trump on their meeting with their Chinese counterparts.
At 1:00 President Trump is expected to make a statement on whether to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.
In the longer term, traders will probably gradually shift their focus of attention more toward corporate earnings and the still overall accommodative global interest rate policies and away from a variety of geopolitical worries, including global trade tensions.
The U.S. dollar continues to advance, as traders focus on the very likely increase in the fed funds rate from the Federal Open Market Committee at its June policy meeting.
The euro currency is lower due to recent reports that suggest Europe’s largest economy has slowed following strong growth in the fourth quarter of 2017.
The European Central Bank will probably not be in a position to hike interest rates until possibly 2019.
In addition, recent economic reports from the U.K. suggest the Bank of England may not be able to increase its key interest rate until much later this year.
The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are lower due to weaker crude oil prices.
There was some additional pressure on the Canadian dollar on news that housing starts in Canada fell 4.9% in April from March.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rate hikes should not upend the global economy. In addition, Powell said even though the Fed has raised the benchmark rate six times since December 2015, U.S. financial conditions have grown looser.
The Treasury will auction three year notes today.
The FOMC remains on track to deliver its second rate hike of the year when it meets next month.
The probability of a fed funds rate increase from the FOMC at the June 13 meeting is almost 100%, which is unchanged from yesterday.
I am still expecting only two more rate hikes this year from the Federal Reserve; one in June and another in December.
June 18 S&P 500
Support 2657.00 Resistance 2675.00
June 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 92.430 Resistance 93.110
June 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.18770 Resistance 1.97780
June 18 Japanese Yen
Support .91650 Resistance .92180
June 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .77010 Resistance .77870
June 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7433 Resistance .7535
June 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 143^0 Resistance 143^28
June 18 Gold
Support 1304.0 Resistance 1321.0
July 18 Copper
Support 3.0300 Resistance 3.1000
June 18 Crude Oil
Support 69.55 Resistance 70.45
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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