header_img

Mideast Tensions Intensify

by Archer Financial Services | Apr 11, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES 

Stock index futures fell due to rising concerns over confrontation between the U.S. and Russia over military action in Syria.

The March consumer price index fell .1% from a month earlier, which was the first decline since May 2017. Analysts were expecting unchanged.

Consumer prices, excluding energy and food, increased .2% when economists predicted a .2% rise in core prices. 

The April Atlanta Federal Reserve business inflation expectations report will be released at 9:00 central time. The March report showed 2.1%.

First quarter earnings season begins on Friday. Investors are expecting tax cuts to help U.S. corporations show their biggest quarterly earnings growth in seven years.

Some analysts are predicting quarterly earnings for S&P 500 companies to increase 17% to 18.5% from a year ago.

The global trade situation remains the dominant influence, but now we have the heightened tensions in Syria.

Longer term, traders will probably gradually shift their focus of attention more toward earnings and the still accommodative global interest rate environment.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The euro currency is higher on news that euro zone house prices recorded their biggest annualized gain last year since 2006.  House prices in the last quarter of 2017 were 4.2% above the comparable quarter a year ago.

The British pound is a little lower on news that manufacturing output in the U.K. unexpectedly fell .2% in February. Economists had forecast a .2% rise.

Flight to quality buying is coming into the Japanese yen in light of the heightened tensions in Syria.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Flight to quality buying is coming into futures due to ramped up Mideast tensions.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its March 20-21 policy meeting at 1:00.

Officials voted then to increase their benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%.

The Treasury will auction ten year notes today.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee at the June 13 meeting is 85%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

June 18   S&P 500

Support    2623.00       Resistance    2659.00

 

June 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    89.000         Resistance    89.420

 

June 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.24040       Resistance    1.24670

 

June 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .93570         Resistance    .94210

 

June 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .79210         Resistance    .79600

 

June 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7733           Resistance    .7783

 

June 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    145^12        Resistance    147^0

 

June 18   Gold

Support    1339.0         Resistance    1362.0

 

May 18   Copper

Support    3.1000         Resistance    3.1550

 

May 18   Crude Oil

Support    65.03           Resistance    66.73


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at Open an Account. It is fast, saves on postage and it’s green.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Offers