By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Global equity markets turned higher after officials of the Trump administration stressed the trade dispute with China could be resolved through negotiations.
Analysts also attributed some of today’s gains to news that North Korea told the U.S. for the first time that it is ready to discuss the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula when North Korean leader Kim Jong Un meets with President Donald Trump.
First quarter earnings season begins on Friday. Investors are expecting tax cuts to help U.S. corporations show their biggest quarterly earnings growth in seven years.
Analysts are forecasting a 17% increase in earnings for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter compared with a year ago, according to estimates from FactSet.
Ongoing trade issues will probably continue for a while, but they will only temporarily pressure futures.
The U.S. dollar declined in spite of the increasing probabilities of a fed funds rate hike in June.
The euro currency is higher despite news that German exports fell in February.
Flight to quality longs are being liquidated in the Japanese yen in light of apparently easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said the central bank would eventually need to consider how to normalize its ultra-easy monetary policies.
In addition, he said any exit from easing would be very gradual.
Futures are mostly lower as flight to quality longs are being liquidated and due to the increasing probabilities of a fed funds rate hike.
In addition, there was some selling due to a perceived easing of global trade tensions.
The probability of a fed funds rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee at the June 13 meeting is 85%, which compares to 78% on Friday.
June 18 S&P 500
Support 2603.00 Resistance 2632.00
June 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 89.450 Resistance 90.010
June 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.23110 Resistance 1.23910
June 18 Japanese Yen
Support .93570 Resistance .94090
June 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .78030 Resistance .78550
June 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7642 Resistance .7711
June 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 145^8 Resistance 146^2
June 18 Gold
Support 1327.0 Resistance 1343.0
May 18 Copper
Support 3.0300 Resistance 3.0800
May 18 Crude Oil
Support 61.85 Resistance 63.55
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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