By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Global equity markets rebounded today extending Friday's late session recovery.
The White House will release the details of its long awaited infrastructure plan today, fulfilling a campaign promise of President Donald Trump. The proposal includes $200 billion in federal infrastructure spending over a decade.
In spite of the recent correction, I am not seeing the beginning of any new long term bear market for stock index futures.
The U.S. dollar is lower as flight to quality longs are liquidated in light of higher stock index futures.
In the longer term, lower prices are likely for the greenback, as interest rate differential expectations are likely to undermine the U.S. dollar.
The euro currency is higher due to the belief that the European Central Bank will remove some of its accommodation later this year and may actually hike interest rates in the first quarter of 2019.
The main trend for the currency of the euro zone is higher.
The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, the “commodity currencies,” are stronger as a result of higher crude oil prices.
In the overnight trade the thirty year Treasury bond futures fell to the lowest levels since April 2015, although there has been some recovery.
Also, yields on 10 year Treasuries were at their highest level since January 2014.
The probability of a fed funds rate increase at the FOMC’s March 21 policy meeting is 75%, which is unchanged from Friday.
The long term trend for futures is lower, especially for the thirty year Treasury bond futures.
March 18 S&P 500
Support 2618.00 Resistance 2659.00
March 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 89.840 Resistance 90.400
March 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.22550 Resistance 1.23360
March 18 Japanese Yen
Support .92000 Resistance .92450
March 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .79310 Resistance .79810
March 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7803 Resistance .7845
March 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 143^0 Resistance 144^20
April 18 Gold
Support 1314.0 Resistance 1333.0
March 18 Copper
Support 3.0400 Resistance 3.1000
March 18 Crude Oil
Support 59.03 Resistance 60.95
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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