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Global Equity Markets Rebound

by Archer Financial Services | Feb 12, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     
 

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Global equity markets rebounded today extending Friday's late session recovery.

The White House will release the details of its long awaited infrastructure plan today, fulfilling a campaign promise of President Donald Trump. The proposal includes $200 billion in federal infrastructure spending over a decade. 

In spite of the recent correction, I am not seeing the beginning of any new long term bear market for stock index futures.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower as flight to quality longs are liquidated in light of higher stock index futures.

In the longer term, lower prices are likely for the greenback, as interest rate differential expectations are likely to undermine the U.S. dollar.

The euro currency is higher due to the belief that the European Central Bank will remove some of its accommodation later this year and may actually hike interest rates in the first quarter of 2019.

The main trend for the currency of the euro zone is higher.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar, the “commodity currencies,” are stronger as a result of higher crude oil prices.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

In the overnight trade the thirty year Treasury bond futures fell to the lowest levels since April 2015, although there has been some recovery.

Also, yields on 10 year Treasuries were at their highest level since January 2014.

The probability of a fed funds rate increase at the FOMC’s March 21 policy meeting is 75%, which is unchanged from Friday. 

The long term trend for futures is lower, especially for the thirty year Treasury bond futures.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

March 18   S&P 500

Support    2618.00       Resistance    2659.00

 

March 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    89.840         Resistance    90.400

 

March 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.22550       Resistance    1.23360

 

March 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .92000         Resistance    .92450

 

March 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .79310         Resistance    .79810

 

March 18  Australian Dollar

Support    .7803           Resistance    .7845

 

March 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    143^0          Resistance    144^20

 

April 18   Gold

Support    1314.0         Resistance    1333.0

 

March 18   Copper

Support    3.0400         Resistance    3.1000

 

March 18   Crude Oil

Support    59.03           Resistance    60.95

 


For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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