U.S. Dollar Higher

by Archer Financial Services | Jan 08, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     


Stock index futures performed well on Friday in spite of the weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report.

The 2:00 central time November consumer credit report is expected to be up $18 billion.

The computer models that I use continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher. 



The U.S. dollar is higher in spite of a slightly lessened probability of a rate hike at the March FOMC policy meeting.

The euro currency is lower in spite of news that the European Commission said its Economic Sentiment Indicator, which aggregates business and consumer confidence, soared to nearly a two decade high. The index increased to 116 in December when the forecast was for 114.8. 

The British pound is lower on reports that U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing a cabinet reshuffle.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are lower in spite of firming crude oil prices.

However, in the longer term, these “commodity currencies” are likely to trend higher against the U.S. dollar.



Federal Reserve speakers today are Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic at 11:40 and San Francisco Bank President John Williams at 12:35.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMC’s March 21 policy meeting is 63%, which compares to 68% on Friday. 

In the longer term outlook, futures are likely to work lower, as it is likely that commodity and wage inflation will accelerate this year and be above the consensus estimates.

This will adversely impact the 30 year Treasury bond futures the most, since the long end of the curve is the most susceptible to the inflation influence.




March 18   S&P 500

Support    2731.00       Resistance    2751.00


March 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    91.510           Resistance    92.140


March 18    Euro Currency

Support    1.21100         Resistance    1.20110


March 18    Japanese Yen

Support    .88410         Resistance    .88980


March 18    Canadian Dollar

Support    .80410         Resistance    .80960


March 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7814            Resistance    .7888


March 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds   

Support    151^16         Resistance    152^16


February 18   Gold

Support    1312.0          Resistance    1327.0


March 18   Copper

Support    3.2100          Resistance    3.2550


February  18   Crude Oil

Support    61.20            Resistance    62.21 


 For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.