By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
Stock index futures kicked off 2018 on a strong note yesterday as signs of quickening economic activity around the globe encouraged risk-on sentiment among investors.
Additional gains are likely due to optimism that the new tax law in the U.S. will benefit corporations, the strengthening global economy, solid corporate earnings and the still relatively low interest rate environment.
The 9:00 central time December Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is expected to be 58 and the 9:00 November construction spending report is anticipated to show a .6% increase.
Washington is gearing up for a government funding battle with a January 19 deadline.
The main trend for stock index futures is higher.
After the U.S. dollar fell to a four month low yesterday, there is some recovery today.
Yesterday, euro currency futures advanced to their highest level since December 2014 on the belief that the European Central Bank will start to wind down its stimulus program later this year.
However, the euro is lower today in spite of news that Germany's jobless rate fell to a record low.
The jobless rate was 5.5 % in December, while the previous month’s rate was revised lower to the same level. Also, the number of unemployed plunged by 29,000 last month, which is more than twice as much as the median forecast.
The Canadian dollar is a little lower in spite of higher crude oil prices.
At 1:00 the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes of its December 12-13 policy meeting.
At the December meeting officials voted to hike their benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 1.25% and 1.5%. In addition, they predicted three 25 basis point rate increases for 2018.
The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMC’s March 21 policy meeting is 57%, which is unchanged from yesterday.
Futures are likely to work lower in the longer term, especially at the long end of the curve, as growth in the global economy accelerates.
March 18 S&P 500
Support 2688.00 Resistance 2703.00
March 18 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 91.400 Resistance 91.930
March 18 Euro Currency
Support 1.20530 Resistance 1.21310
March 18 Japanese Yen
Support .89190 Resistance .89610
March 18 Canadian Dollar
Support .79770 Resistance .80170
March 18 Australian Dollar
Support .7795 Resistance .7855
March 18 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 151^16 Resistance 152^16
February 18 Gold
Support 1311.0 Resistance 1327.0
March 18 Copper
Support 3.2450 Resistance 3.2900
February 18 Crude Oil
Support 60.15 Resistance 61.33
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at email@example.com. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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