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FOMC Minutes Today

by Archer Financial Services | Jan 03, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Stock index futures kicked off 2018 on a strong note yesterday as signs of quickening economic activity around the globe encouraged risk-on sentiment among investors.

Additional gains are likely due to optimism that the new tax law in the U.S. will benefit corporations, the strengthening global economy, solid corporate earnings and the still relatively low interest rate environment.

The 9:00 central time December Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is expected to be 58 and the 9:00 November construction spending report is anticipated to show a .6% increase.

Washington is gearing up for a government funding battle with a January 19 deadline.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher. 

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

After the U.S. dollar fell to a four month low yesterday, there is some recovery today.

Yesterday, euro currency futures advanced to their highest level since December 2014 on the belief that the European Central Bank will start to wind down its stimulus program later this year.

However, the euro is lower today in spite of news that Germany's jobless rate fell to a record low.

The jobless rate was 5.5 % in December, while the previous month’s rate was revised lower to the same level. Also, the number of unemployed plunged by 29,000 last month, which is more than twice as much as the median forecast.

The Canadian dollar is a little lower in spite of higher crude oil prices.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

At 1:00 the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes of its December 12-13 policy meeting.

At the December meeting officials voted to hike their benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of between 1.25% and 1.5%. In addition, they predicted three 25 basis point rate increases for 2018.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMC’s March 21 policy meeting is 57%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

Futures are likely to work lower in the longer term, especially at the long end of the curve, as growth in the global economy accelerates.

      

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

March 18   S&P 500

Support    2688.00       Resistance    2703.00

 

March 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    91.400         Resistance    91.930

 

March 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.20530       Resistance    1.21310

 

March 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .89190         Resistance    .89610

 

March 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .79770         Resistance    .80170

 

March 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7795           Resistance    .7855

 

March 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    151^16        Resistance    152^16

 

February 18   Gold

Support    1311.0         Resistance    1327.0

 

March 18   Copper

Support    3.2450         Resistance    3.2900

 

February 18   Crude Oil

Support    60.15           Resistance    61.33

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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