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Outlook for Stock Index Futures Remains Bullish

by Archer Financial Services | Jan 02, 2018

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Major stock index futures finished last year with their best performance since 2013 due to optimism that the new tax law in the U.S. will benefit corporations, the strengthening global economy, solid corporate earnings and still relatively low interest rates that have been the fuel for this bull market.

The 8:45 central time December manufacturing PMI is expected to be 55.

Washington is gearing up for a government funding battle with a January 19 deadline.

The main trend for stock index future is higher. 

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar fell to a four month low, while the euro currency advanced to a four month high.

Strength in the euro is linked to news that euro zone factories ended 2017 growing at their fastest rate in over than two decades. A monthly factory index for the euro area jumped to a record 60.6 in December.

The British pound is higher in spite of news that a U.K. manufacturing PMI fell below expectations in December.

A purchasing manager’s index for the manufacturing industry in the U.K. fell to 56.3 in December, which is down from 58.2 a month earlier. The December figure was below the expectations of a reading of 57.9.  

The Canadian dollar is lower due to weaker crude oil prices.

However, the Australian dollar advanced to a three month high on news that China’s manufacturing growth unexpectedly picked up to a four month high in December due to a surge in new orders. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 from 50.8 in November, which is well above expectations of a decline to 50.6.

The Australian dollar is higher in spite of news that Australian home prices fell in the last three months of 2017, which was the first decline in almost two years.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

The Treasury will auction 52 week bills today.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMC’s March 21, 2018 policy meeting is 57%, which compares to 56% on Friday.

Futures are likely to work lower in the longer term, especially at the long end of the curve, as growth in the global economy accelerates.

      

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

March 18   S&P 500

Support    2671.00       Resistance    2694.00

 

March 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    91.330         Resistance    92.010

 

March 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.20450       Resistance    1.21470

 

March 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .88910         Resistance    .89660

 

March 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .79590         Resistance    .80010

 

March 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7788           Resistance    .7857

 

March 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    152^8          Resistance    152^30

 

February 18   Gold

Support    1301.0         Resistance    1320.0

 

March 18   Copper

Support    3.2600         Resistance    3.3150

 

February 18   Crude Oil

Support    59.95           Resistance    60.86

 

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

 

Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at Open an Account. It is fast, saves on postage and it’s green.

 

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

 

 

 For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

Would you like to open an account with us? Go to our interactive New Account application at Open an Account. It is fast, saves on postage and it’s green.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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