Stock Index Futures Likely Higher in 2018

by Archer Financial Services | Dec 28, 2017

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     


Stock index futures are being supported by the ongoing increase in commodity prices.

In addition, stock index futures remain firm on the belief that the new tax law in the United States will benefit corporations in 2018.    

Initial jobless claims were 245,000 in the week ended December 23, which is unchanged from the prior week. Economists had expected 240,000 new claims last week. 

The 8:45 central time December Chicago PMI is expected to be 62.5. 

I am looking for something specific in my computer models that tells me this bull market is reversing into a bear market. Currently there are no indications that this will happen any time soon.

Expect this bull market to continue in 2018.


The U.S. dollar is under pressure falling to a three month low due to a recent dip in U.S. 10 year Treasury yields, while the euro currency advanced to a three month high.

The Japanese yen is higher on news that industrial production in Japan rose .6% in November from October. The median estimate called for a .5% increase.

In addition, retail sales in Japan in November rose 1.9% from October, when a gain of .7% was predicted.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar hit two month highs today in spite of steady crude oil prices.



The Treasury will auction seven year notes today.

The probability of a fed funds rate hike at the FOMC’s March 21, 2018 policy meeting is 62%, which is unchanged from yesterday.

The Federal Reserve increased interest rates three times in 2017, citing improving economic conditions. 

Fed officials recently predicted three 25 basis point increases in 2018 and two each in 2019 and in 2020.

Lower futures prices are likely longer term as growth in the global economy accelerates.



March 18   S&P 500

Support    2683.00       Resistance    2694.00


March 18   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    92.230         Resistance    92.760


March 18   Euro Currency

Support    1.19430       Resistance    1.20110


March 18   Japanese Yen

Support    .88550         Resistance    .89180


March 18   Canadian Dollar

Support    .79040         Resistance    .79750


March 18   Australian Dollar

Support    .7757           Resistance    .7817


March 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    152^8          Resistance    153^2


February 18   Gold

Support    1288.0         Resistance    1299.0


March 18   Copper

Support    3.2600         Resistance    3.3300


February 18   Crude Oil

Support    59.33           Resistance    60.03


 For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.