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Tax Reform Delays Emerge Overnight

by Archer Financial Services | Dec 01, 2017

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures advanced to record highs yesterday as investors focused on positive developments surrounding the U.S. tax bill.

However, in the overnight trade futures declined as a result of complications in the effort to overhaul the U.S. tax code.

A stumbling block to the proposed tax policy changes emerged last night, as some Republican senators voiced concerns about the budget deficit, which delayed a vote.

The 8:45 central time November PMI manufacturing index is expected to be 54.5.

The 9:00 November Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 58.4 and the 9:00 November construction spending report is estimated to be up .5%.

The computer models that I use continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar was under pressure in the overnight trade when the U.S. Senate suspended voting on the tax reform bill until later today, as debate to win a majority vote broke down.

The British pound is lower in spite of news that U.K. manufacturing activity grew at the fastest rate in over four years last month.

The Japanese yen is lower in spite of a report that showed Japan’s manufacturing activity in November increased at its quickest rate in over three and a half years.

The Canadian dollar and the Australia dollar are higher due to higher crude oil prices.

In addition, the Canadian dollar was supported by news that Canada’s gross domestic product in the third quarter increased 1.7% on an annualized basis. Economists predicted a 1.6% growth rate.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are higher, especially at the long end of the curve due to a snag in tax reform.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan at 8:30 and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker at 9:15.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is over than 99%.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

December 17   S&P 500

Support    2628.00       Resistance    2654.00

 

December 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    92.540         Resistance    93.250

 

December 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.18620       Resistance    1.19640

 

December 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .88610         Resistance    .89330

 

December 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .77430         Resistance    .77860

 

December 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7545           Resistance    .7609

 

March 18   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    151^20        Resistance    153^0

 

February 18   Gold

Support    1272.0         Resistance    1284.0

 

March 18   Copper

Support    3.0600         Resistance    3.9000

 

January 18   Crude Oil

Support    57.21           Resistance    58.73



For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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