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Caution Required around Record Data

by Archer Financial Services | Nov 30, 2017
By Matt Krupski
To learn more about Matt, click here

On Tuesday the Conference Board released the latest consumer confidence index reading, which showed the highest rating (125.9) since November of 2000 (132.6).  This morning the Chicago PMI number was released, and while it moderated slightly to 63.9 from last month’s number of 66.2, it remains relatively high.  October’s Chicago PMI reading was the best number since March of 2011.   Upon hearing of multi-year highs in both these numbers, one could infer that the stock market rally is poised to continue. 

A quick examination of the S&P performance following the previous highs in these numbers, however, urges caution.  In the graph below, you can see the S&P 500 performance following the previous CCI high (November 2011) as well as the previous Chicago PMI highs.  The poor performance in the months following these previous high readings should deter traders from reading too much into these indicators.

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For more information about this article, please contact me at 312.242.7978  or via email at matthew.krupski@archerfinancials.com.  I look forward to hearing from you. Thank you.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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