Caution Required around Record Data

by Archer Financial Services | Nov 30, 2017
By Matt Krupski
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On Tuesday the Conference Board released the latest consumer confidence index reading, which showed the highest rating (125.9) since November of 2000 (132.6).  This morning the Chicago PMI number was released, and while it moderated slightly to 63.9 from last month’s number of 66.2, it remains relatively high.  October’s Chicago PMI reading was the best number since March of 2011.   Upon hearing of multi-year highs in both these numbers, one could infer that the stock market rally is poised to continue. 

A quick examination of the S&P performance following the previous highs in these numbers, however, urges caution.  In the graph below, you can see the S&P 500 performance following the previous CCI high (November 2011) as well as the previous Chicago PMI highs.  The poor performance in the months following these previous high readings should deter traders from reading too much into these indicators.


For more information about this article, please contact me at 312.242.7978  or via email at matthew.krupski@archerfinancials.com.  I look forward to hearing from you. Thank you.

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