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FOMC Minutes Today

by Archer Financial Services | Nov 22, 2017

By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures advanced to new historical highs. Prices remain higher in spite of news that durable orders declined in October.  

Orders for durable goods, which are products designed to last at least three years, fell 1.2% from the previous month, which compares to expectations of a .2% increase.

Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 in the week ended Nov. 18.  Economists had expected 240,000 new claims last week.  

The 9:00 central time November consumer sentiment index is anticipated to be 98.1.

At 1:00 the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its November 1 policy meeting.

Historically stock index futures have shown a tendency to advance in the week of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

The computer models that I use continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar fell after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen late yesterday warned that there has been “some hint” that inflation expectations may be drifting down and that there could be risks to removing accommodation too quickly.

There was additional pressure on the greenback when the weaker than anticipated U.S. durable goods orders report was released.

The British pound only temporarily came under pressure when finance minister Philip Hammond said the country's official budget forecasters are now expecting gross domestic product will grow by 1.5% in 2017, compared with a forecast of 2% growth made in March.

He also predicted growth in 2018 would be 1.4% compared with the previous forecast of 1.6%.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

There was little market reaction to yesterday’s comments from Fed Chair Yellen.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is better than 99%.

I agree with the consensus view that the FOMC will hike rates next month.

However, I expect only two fed funds rate increases in 2018, while some analysts are predicting three or more rate hikes in 2018 and the Fed is currently predicting three interest rate hikes.

I will be out of the office on Friday November 24

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

December 17   S&P 500

Support    2591.00       Resistance    2604.00

 

December 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    93.520         Resistance    93.960

 

December 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.17320       Resistance    1.17980

 

December 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .88870         Resistance    .89650

 

December 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .78150         Resistance    .78680

 

December 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7545           Resistance    .7598

 

December 17   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    153^10        Resistance    154^20

 

December 17   Gold

Support    1276.0         Resistance    1292.0

 

December 17   Copper

Support    3.1100         Resistance    3.1550

 

January 17   Crude Oil

Support    56.96           Resistance    58.21

 

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911  or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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