By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS
S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures advanced to new historical highs. Prices remain higher in spite of news that durable orders declined in October.
Orders for durable goods, which are products designed to last at least three years, fell 1.2% from the previous month, which compares to expectations of a .2% increase.
Initial jobless claims fell 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 in the week ended Nov. 18. Economists had expected 240,000 new claims last week.
The 9:00 central time November consumer sentiment index is anticipated to be 98.1.
At 1:00 the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from its November 1 policy meeting.
Historically stock index futures have shown a tendency to advance in the week of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
The computer models that I use continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.
The main trend for stock index futures is higher.
The U.S. dollar fell after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen late yesterday warned that there has been “some hint” that inflation expectations may be drifting down and that there could be risks to removing accommodation too quickly.
There was additional pressure on the greenback when the weaker than anticipated U.S. durable goods orders report was released.
The British pound only temporarily came under pressure when finance minister Philip Hammond said the country's official budget forecasters are now expecting gross domestic product will grow by 1.5% in 2017, compared with a forecast of 2% growth made in March.
He also predicted growth in 2018 would be 1.4% compared with the previous forecast of 1.6%.
There was little market reaction to yesterday’s comments from Fed Chair Yellen.
According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 12-13 meeting is better than 99%.
I agree with the consensus view that the FOMC will hike rates next month.
However, I expect only two fed funds rate increases in 2018, while some analysts are predicting three or more rate hikes in 2018 and the Fed is currently predicting three interest rate hikes.
I will be out of the office on Friday November 24
December 17 S&P 500
Support 2591.00 Resistance 2604.00
December 17 U.S. Dollar Index
Support 93.520 Resistance 93.960
December 17 Euro Currency
Support 1.17320 Resistance 1.17980
December 17 Japanese Yen
Support .88870 Resistance .89650
December 17 Canadian Dollar
Support .78150 Resistance .78680
December 17 Australian Dollar
Support .7545 Resistance .7598
December 17 Thirty Year Treasury Bonds
Support 153^10 Resistance 154^20
December 17 Gold
Support 1276.0 Resistance 1292.0
December 17 Copper
Support 3.1100 Resistance 3.1550
January 17 Crude Oil
Support 56.96 Resistance 58.21
For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff. Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.
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