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Dow Futures at a New Record High

by Archer Financial Services | Oct 10, 2017
By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS       

 

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

Dow Jones futures advanced to a new record high today, as stock index futures globally continue to be supported by optimism about global economic growth.

Third quarter earnings season starts at the end of the week.  Analysts are anticipating another quarter of growth with the earnings growth estimate at 5.5%, while revenue growth is expected to be 4.3%.

The National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index fell 2.3 points in September to 103, which compares to the consensus forecast of 105.4.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower and the euro currency is higher on news that German exports surged 3.1% in August compared to July due to strong demand from the euro zone.

In addition, the euro was supported when a member of the European Central Bank executive board, called for the ECB to roll back its asset purchases in 2018.

The British pound is higher in spite of news that the U.K. trade deficit in goods widened in August to hit the highest level on record.

The Japanese yen is higher after the Bank of Japan raised its outlook on four of the nation's nine regional economies. 

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are higher due to higher crude oil prices.

The Canadian dollar is stronger in spite of news that building permits in Canada fell 5.5% in August from July.

There was additional support for the Australian dollar after a report showed an Australian business conditions index remained strong in September. 

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Federal Reserve speakers today are Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari at 9:00 central time and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Rob Kaplan at 7:00 this evening.

The Federal Reserve appears to be on track to raise its fed funds rate for a third time this year, and the fifth since late 2015, to a range of between 1.25% and 1.50%.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 88%, which compares to 93% yesterday.

The long term fundamentals for futures are mixed.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

December 17   S&P 500

Support    2541.00       Resistance    2553.00

 

December 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    93.010         Resistance    93.680

 

December 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.17760       Resistance    1.18660

 

December 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .88850         Resistance    .89400

 

December 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .79570         Resistance    .80150

 

December 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7737           Resistance    .7803

 

December 17   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    151^20        Resistance    152^16

 

December 17   Gold

Support    1281.0         Resistance    1297.0

 

December 17   Copper

Support    3.0200         Resistance    3.0650

 

November 17   Crude Oil

Support    49.41           Resistance    50.88

 

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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