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S&P 500 Futures Near Record Highs

by Archer Financial Services | Sep 28, 2017
By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     

 

STOCK INDEX FUTURES 

S&P 500 futures advanced to a new historical high yesterday.

Stock index futures are lower in spite of news that U.S. economic output grew at a 3.1% annual rate in the second quarter, which is slightly stronger than previously believed and marks the best growth rate in two years.  Economists had expected the estimate to remain at 3% growth.    

Initial jobless claims, increased 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 272,000 in the week ended September 23, according to the Labor Department, which partially reflects job losses due to hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

Economists had expected 275,000 new claims.

The September Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index will be released at 10:00 central time.

The computer models that I use, which have been back tested to the early 1920s, continue to generate bullish signals for stock index futures.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher.

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower today, giving back some of the gains that were made on yesterday’s tax cutting news.

The main trend for the U.S. dollar is lower.

The euro currency is higher after businesses and households across the euro zone in September were more upbeat about their economic prospects than at any time in over a decade.

The European Commission said the Economic Sentiment Indicator, increased to 113.0 from 111.9 in August, to reach its best level since June 2007. Economists had expected a much smaller gain.    

However, gains were limited by news that consumer prices rose by an annual 1.8%, according to the Federal Statistics Office. This is unchanged from August and below the 1.9% median predicted by analysts.

The main trend for the euro is higher.

The Canadian dollar is lower again today after yesterday it registered its largest decline in eight months after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz made comments that reduced expectations for additional interest rate hikes this year.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Continuing flight to quality long liquidation is pressuring the long end of the curve again.

The Treasury will auction seven year notes today.

At 8:45 Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and at 9:00 Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will speak on developments in central banking.

According to financial futures markets, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 83%, which compares to 78% yesterday.

The long term fundamentals for futures are mixed.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

December 17   S&P 500

Support    2495.00       Resistance    2508.00

 

December 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    92.940         Resistance    93.550

 

December 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.17610       Resistance    1.18480

 

December 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .88530         Resistance    .89260

 

December 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .97820         Resistance    .80450

 

December 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7781           Resistance    .7860

 

December 17   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    151^24        Resistance    153^8

 

December 17   Gold

Support    1278.0         Resistance    1295.0

 

December 17   Copper

Support    2.9000         Resistance    2.9500

 

November 17   Crude Oil

Support    51.77           Resistance    53.07

 

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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