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Strong Employment Numbers Push Dow to Record High

by Archer Financial Services | Aug 04, 2017
By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     


STOCK INDEX FUTURES  

Dow Jones futures advanced to a new record high after the stronger than expected U.S. employment report was released.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 209,000 in July from the prior month, when an increase of 180,000 was expected. 

Private payrolls gained 205,000, which compares to the anticipated increase of 180,000.

The unemployment fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in the prior month, which matches a 16 year low.

Average hourly earnings increased .34% when a gain of .3% was estimated. 

Average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.5 and the labor participation rate improved to 62.9% from 62.8% in the previous month.   

The main trend for stock index futures is higher. 

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar was lower in the overnight trade, but quickly recovered to trade higher on news that the U.S. employment report was stronger than expected.  In spite of today’s gains the greenback remains near a 13 month low.

The main trend for the greenback is lower, as interest rate differential expectations remain bearish.

The euro currency advanced in the overnight trade due to a report that German manufacturing orders rose in June from the previous month. 

There was pressure on the euro more recently today when the better than expected U.S. employment numbers were released.

Despite today’s pressure the euro remains near its highest level since January 2015. 

There is underlying support for the euro, as speculation remains that the European Central Bank could announce plans to wind down its quantitative easing program this year, possibly at its September 7 policy meeting.

The main trend for the euro is higher.

The Japanese yen fell on news that overall Japanese wages fell in June for the first time in 13 months. Overall cash wages fell .4% from a year earlier, after rising .6% in May.

The Australian dollar was higher in the overnight session, but pressure developed when the U.S. employment report was released.

Retail sales in Australia rose by .3% in June from May, when economists had expected a .2% rise. 

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

There is pressure on futures due to the stronger than anticipated U.S. employment report.

There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 51%, which compares to 50% yesterday.

The long term fundamentals for futures are mixed.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

September 17   S&P 500

Support    2466.00       Resistance    2481.00

 

September 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    92.510         Resistance    93.10

 

September 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.1803         Resistance    1.1921

 

September 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .90330         Resistance    .91300

 

September 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .79110         Resistance    .79860

 

September 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7903           Resistance    .7981

 

September 17   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    153^26        Resistance    155^16

 

December 17   Gold

Support    1261.0         Resistance    1279.0

 

September 17   Copper

Support    2.8700         Resistance    2.9000

 

September 17   Crude Oil

Support    48.39           Resistance    49.41


 

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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