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Dow Futures Hit Record Highs

by Archer Financial Services | Aug 01, 2017
By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     


STOCK INDEX FUTURES 

Dow futures hit record highs today.

Much of the strength in stock index futures can be attributed to upbeat earnings reports and signs of a brighter global economy.  

Personal income in June was unchanged, which compares to expectations of a .4% increase and personal spending was up .1%, as anticipated.

The 8:45 central time July U.S. manufacturing PMI is estimated to be 53.2 and the 9:00 July Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is expected to be 56.5. The prices paid portion of the report is anticipated to be 55.8.

Also at 9:00 is the June construction spending report, which is estimated to show an increase of .4%. 

The main trend for stock index futures is higher. 

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

Short covering helped the U.S. dollar to firm today after registering a new 13 month low yesterday.

The main trend for the greenback is lower, as interest rate differentials remain bearish.

The euro currency advanced to a 30 month high yesterday.

The euro currency is a little lower today after the European Union's statistics agency said the euro zone gross domestic product in the second quarter was .6% higher, which was as expected.

This is a marked improvement from the .5% quarterly growth rate that was reported in the three months to March and was the fastest annual growth rate since the first quarter of 2011. 

Speculation remains that the European Central Bank could announce plans to wind down its quantitative easing program this year, possibly at its September 7 policy meeting, which is an underlying bullish factor for the currency of the euro zone.

The main trend for the euro is higher.

The British pound is higher due to news that U.K. manufacturing activity accelerated in July.

A purchasing managers' index for British manufacturing increased to 55.1 in July from June's downwardly revised 54.2.  This result exceeded expectations of a reading of 54.9.

The Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar are lower due to lower crude oil prices.   

There was some additional pressure on the currency of Australia when Australia's central bank left its key interest rate unchanged, but warned of the risks to economic growth due to recent strength in the Australian dollar.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are lower, especially at the long end of the curve in spite of the bullish weaker than expected personal income report.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 45.5%.

The long term fundamentals for futures are mixed.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

September 17   S&P 500

Support    2464.00       Resistance    2481.00

 

September 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    92.550         Resistance    93.010

 

September 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.1821         Resistance    1.1887

 

September 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .90530         Resistance    .91180

 

September 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .79420         Resistance    .80450

 

September 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7943           Resistance    .8046

 

September 17   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    152^0          Resistance    153^8

 

August 17   Gold

Support    1260.0         Resistance    1273.0

 

September 17   Copper

Support    2.8670         Resistance    2.9100

 

September 17   Crude Oil

Support    48.51           Resistance    50.59

 

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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