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U.S. Dollar at 10 Month Lows

by Archer Financial Services | Jul 17, 2017
By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS     

 

STOCK INDEX FUTURES

S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures on Friday advanced to new record highs.

Stock index futures are firm today due to news that China reported a 6.9% second quarter gross domestic product growth rate on the year, surpassing expectations. Economists expected 6.8% growth in the April to the June period. 

The July New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index was 9.8, which compares to expectations of 15.

So far, of the 6% of S&P 500 companies that have reported second quarter earnings, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations.     

The main trend for stock index futures is higher. 

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar fell to a 10 month low, as interest rate differentials remain unfavorable to the greenback.

Longer term it appears that lower prices are likely for the U.S. dollar.

The euro currency remains near 14 month highs.

The euro is a little higher today even though euro zone June inflation data was roughly in line with expectations at 1.3%. This substantially below the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2%.

Speculation remains that the European Central Bank could announce plans to wind down its quantitative easing program at its September 7 policy meeting.

The main trend for the currency of the euro zone is higher.

The Australian dollar is firm due to the stronger than expected Chinese gross domestic product report.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Futures are narrowly mixed, although there was some support due to the weaker than anticipated New York Federal Reserve manufacturing index.

According to financial futures markets there is only a 3% probability that the Federal Reserve will increase its funds rate at the July 26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 48%, which is unchanged from Friday.

The long term fundamentals for futures are mixed.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

September 17   S&P 500

Support    2451.00        Resistance    2462.00
 

September 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    94.740         Resistance    95.190
 

September 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.14660       Resistance    1.15260


 

September 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .88840         Resistance    .89320

 

September 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .78880         Resistance    .79290

 

September 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7791           Resistance    .7838

  

September 17   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    152^0          Resistance    153^6

  

August 17   Gold

Support    1224.0         Resistance    1239.0

 

September 17   Copper

Support    2.6800         Resistance    2.7400

  

August 17   Crude Oil

Support    46.03           Resistance    46.88

   

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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