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Stock Index Outlook Remains Bullish

by Archer Financial Services | Jul 13, 2017
By Alan Bush | Senior Financial Economist at ADMIS   

STOCK INDEX FUTURES 

Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced to a new record close after dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.   

In her testimony she indicated the Federal Reserve will approach tightening cautiously, given the uncertain inflation situation. The Fed plans to continue raising interest rates gradually, but is ready to change course if inflation remains weak.   

Yellen is speaking again today.

In the week ended July 8 jobless claims fell 3,000 to 247,000 when 245,000 were expected. 

The June producer price index, which measures changes in the prices that U.S. companies receive for their goods and services, increased by a seasonally adjusted .1% in June from a month earlier.

Economists predicted the index would remain unchanged last month. Prices advanced 2% from a year earlier.

The main trend for stock index futures is higher. 

 

CURRENCY FUTURES

The U.S. dollar is lower and is closing in on one year lows, as interest rate differentials remain unfavorable to the greenback.

Longer term it appears that lower prices are likely for the U.S. dollar.

The euro currency made a 14 month high yesterday and is higher today due to speculation that the European Central Bank could announce plans to wind down its quantitative easing program at its September 7 policy meeting.

The main trend for the euro currency is higher.

The Canadian dollar is lower in spite of higher crude oil prices and news that Canadian new house prices surged for a second consecutive month in May.

Canada's new housing price index increased .7% on a month to month basis. Market expectations were for a smaller .3% gain.

The Australian dollar is higher on news that Chinese economic data came in stronger than expected.

 

INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES

Gains were made yesterday due to Yellen’s dovish interest rate comments. However, some of these gains were given back today.

The probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will increase its fed funds rate at the December 13 meeting is 57% 

The Treasury will auction 30 year bonds today.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will speak about monetary policy at 12:00 central time.

 

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

 

September 17   S&P 500

Support    2436.00        Resistance    2449.00

 

September 17   U.S. Dollar Index

Support    95.110         Resistance    95.750

 

September 17    Euro Currency

Support    1.14040       Resistance    1.14980

 

September 17    Japanese Yen

Support    .88220         Resistance    .88940

 

September 17    Canadian Dollar

Support    .78280         Resistance    .78770

 

September 17   Australian Dollar

Support    .7658           Resistance    .7747

 

September 17   Thirty Year Treasury Bonds

Support    152^8          Resistance    153^16

 

August 17   Gold

Support    1214.0         Resistance    1228.0

 

September 17   Copper

Support    2.6650         Resistance    2.7000

 

August 17   Crude Oil

Support    44.78           Resistance    45.88

 

For more information about these markets, please contact Alan at 312.242.7911 or via email at alan.bush@admis.com. Thank you.

 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The risk of loss in trading futures and options can be substantial. The views and opinions expressed in this letter are those of the author and do not reflect the views of ADM Investor Services, Inc. or its staff.  Research analyst does not currently maintain positions in the commodities specified within this report. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright © ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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